Fixing Market Failures or Fixing Elections? Agricultural Credit in India

نویسنده

  • Shawn Cole
چکیده

This paper integrates theories of political budget cycles with theories of tactical electoral redistribution to test for political capture in a novel way. Studying banks in India, I …nd that government-owned bank lending tracks the electoral cycle, with agricultural credit increasing by 5-10 percentage points in an election year. There is signi…cant cross-sectional targeting, with large increases in districts in which the election is particularly close. This targeting does not occur in non-election years, or in private bank lending. I show capture is costly: elections a¤ect loan repayment, and election year credit booms do not measurably a¤ect agricultural output. Finance Unit, Harvard Business School. 25 Harvard Way, Boston, MA, 02163, [email protected]. I thank Abhijit Banerjee, Esther Du‡o, and Sendhil Mullainathan for guidance, and Abhiman Das, R.B. Barman and especially the Reserve Bank of India for substantial support and assistance. I also thank Abhiman Das for performing calculations on disaggregated data at the Reserve Bank of India. In addition, I thank Victor Chernozhukov, Ivan Fernandez-Val, Francesco Franco, Andrew Healy, Andrei Levchenko, Rema Hanna, Petia Topalova, and participants various seminars and workshops, the editor, Thomas Lemieux, and two referees for comments. Gautam Bastian and Samantha Bastian provided excellent research assistance. I am grateful for …nancial support from a National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellowship, and Harvard Business School’s Division of Research and Faculty Development. Errors are my own.

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تاریخ انتشار 2008